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FORD is riding on the crest of a wave this year, its sales growth of 17 per cent to the end of July outstripping the industry average and its major rivals by a country mile and, on the face of it, showing positive signs for the future as it quits manufacturing in Australia in less than nine weeks and begins a new era as a fully imported brand.

It is, however, a position that surely cannot last at such great heights because its locally manufactured vehicles – Falcon sedan and ute (at 4469 sales combined this year), and Territory SUV (4251) – currently account for 18.5 per cent of its overall volume and there is no replacement for any of them in the short-term and no real indication that the remainder of its range can make up the shortfall any time soon.

Market Insight: Ford

Market Insight: Ford

Ford is certainly not sticking with the large sedan segment after Falcon’s painfully long downward spiral, and there is nothing that will ever truly replace the unique car-derived two-door ute.

There is also no replacement for the Falcon-based Territory until sometime in 2018, when the Edge turns up to fill a hole that will have been open for more than than a year after sales of the Broadmeadows-built high-rider run dry.

Whether it likes it or not, Ford currently has half its business in Australia resting on a couple of large-sized vehicles based on the one platform – the booming Ranger one-tonne utility, which at 21,073 sales this year accounts for 45 per cent of total brand volume, and the heavy-duty Everest SUV, which is at five per cent (2183 sales) after reaching showrooms last October.

 

Take the locally manufactured vehicles out of the equation and, based on year-to-date figures, Ranger’s share comes up to 55 per cent while Everest’s share is at six per cent on this assumption and certain to increase exponentially with rear-drive and five-seat versions coming soon.

Ford Everest

Rocky mountain high: Ford’s Everest will help cover the shortfall that comes with the end of Australian manufacturing, but Falcon and Territory lines currently make up almost 20 per cent of Blue Oval sales – and that will be hard to fill.

Although not direct replacements for Falcon and Territory, brand loyalty and relative size will doubtless play a part in both Ranger and Everest picking up a percentage of sales from Blue Oval buyers left without a locally manufactured option.

So this time next year, the pair will surely be accounting for at least two thirds, and possibly as much as 75 per cent, of Ford’s sales in Australia.

Ford Australia president and CEO Graeme Whickman said this week that the company would continue to pump marketing dollars into the big, burly Australian-engineered Ranger – even variants such as Wildtrak, which has a six-month waiting list – but would also look to “balance our showroom” with more emphasis on other models, most of which are struggling.

Ford EcoSport Shadow

Ford EcoSport Shadow

This will be crucial for future growth. Ford has entrants in all the major market segments but in key high-volume or high-growth areas – beyond Ranger and, to a lesser extent, Everest – the sales figures are relatively weak.

Among Ford’s passenger cars this year – which overall account for just over a quarter (27.5 per cent) of the brand’s sales and will soon be without the Falcon sedan, which makes up six per cent – the Fiesta light car is down 41.8 per cent on 1707 sales and the Focus small car has fallen 20.7 per cent with 3644 units.

There is strong interest in the niche Focus RS hot hatch, but volume is limited to 500 units this year. Minor updates are being rolled out for the broader range and an upgraded Fiesta ST is on its way, but nothing that looks like it will stimulate any substantial sales growth.

Rocky mountain high: Ford’s Everest will help cover the shortfall that comes with the end of Australian manufacturing, but Falcon and Territory lines currently make up almost 20 per cent of Blue Oval sales – and that will be hard to fill.

Ford Edge

Time will also tell whether many Falcon buyers migrate to the mid-size Mondeo, sales of which are up 110 per cent this year but accounting for only 1721 units off a low base in a weakening segment. To put this in perspective, five years ago Mondeo was at 3981 sales at this point of the year.

That leaves only the Mustang sportscar as a shining light among Ford’s passenger car lines, racking up 3118 sales but soon to reach its 4000-unit initial allocation for this year.

There are another 2000 units coming around December, which will enable the company to fill the 6000 orders it had racked up by March, but global production constraints and an inevitable drop-off in demand will eventually peg sales back.

Ford is not alone in putting heavy emphasis on SUVs, which is the section of the market bringing solid growth and where the doomed Territory is still far and away its biggest-selling model.

While the Everest is trading well, the EcoSport crossover is down 16.5 per cent this year on 1139 sales and the Kuga has recorded only modest growth of 6.7 per cent (to 2757 units) in a booming category, which is well below the average in class.

With special editions, model updates and new variants, Ford expects to improve its standing in the all-important SUV segment, which currently accounts for only 22 per cent of the brand’s total sales. Take out Territory and that becomes 14 per cent.

Edge is one of the trump cards Ford desperately needs, but the long wait, the fickleness of factory allocations across various model lines and the end of local manufacturing on October 7 are reason enough to expect the brand’s impressive 16.6 per cent growth to start receding in the months ahead.

By Terry Martin

Ford Edge

Ford Edge