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ELECTRIC vehicles hit the national agenda last week with the release of a Senate committee report into the tiny section of the new-vehicle market that could stimulate a rapid upswing in the number of EVs on our roads.

There is no indication that the Coalition government or Labor party opposition will commit to the recommendations made by the bipartisan committee as the May federal election looms.

However, widespread support from industry, interest groups, minor political parties and independent parliamentarians – the elected representatives urging an even tougher response – has provided the strongest indication yet that extensive reform and funding commitments could now be a matter of when, not if.

One of the key recommendations is that the government considers establishing national EV targets for light vehicles – passenger cars/SUVs and commercial – as well as metropolitan buses, and although it stopped short of specifying a target, the committee said it wanted to see a figure based on a percentage of vehicle sales by 2025 “rather than a longer term target for the complete phase-out of ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicle sales”.

This figure is a hot topic for debate, and the report includes additional comments from committee chairman and independent senator Tim Storer, who is pressuring for EVs to make up 25 per cent of all new light passenger motor vehicle sales by 2025.

He is also pushing for 30 per cent of all new light-commercial vehicle sales, and 20 per cent of new metro bus sales, to be EVs by 2025.

Based on the 2018 market and the 50-plus light vehicle brands that are members of the industry’s VFACTS vehicle registration reporting service – the main exception being US EV brand Tesla Motors – 25 per cent of all new passenger cars and SUVs equates to a simply hard-to-fathom 218,428 EV sales.

The actual figure, in an environment where there were only scant government incentives and a small rollout of new vehicles and supporting infrastructure, was 1336 electric passenger cars and SUVs – 245 cars to private buyers, 401 to companies, 195 SUVs to private buyers and 495 non-private.

Tesla refuses to divulge its sales numbers, but assuming the industry ‘disrupter’ sold as many as all other brands put together, the estimated 2672 units still only amounts to 0.3 per cent of the 873,713 overall sales of passenger cars/SUVs – a good 215,000 short of the committee chairman’s target for 2025.

Reality check: Around 1350 new EVs were registered in Australia last year, and if Tesla’s secret sales figures are added, the total comes to an estimated 1700. Many are now calling for firm targets that equate to about 300,000 sales by 2025.

So, yes, we have a long way to go, and in a market that sold 237,972 light-commercial vehicles last year, the thought of 71,391 of these being electric – as opposed to the 16, all of them examples of Renault’s Kangoo ZE compact van – within the next seven years really stretches the imagination.

Using VFACTS figures, we can see that the 1352 EV sales in total last year was the industry’s best result yet, with calculations stretching back to mid-2010 when Mitsubishi entered the market with its pioneering i-MiEV city car.

This was 228 units more than the 1124 sold in 2017 – independent estimates put the national figure at around 2300 that year, including Tesla – while only 219 new EVs were registered across Australia via VFACTS in 2016 as stocks ran dry of lynchpin models like the Nissan Leaf and Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV.

This was a low point for the fledgling sector, but annual totals have never been high, with 1108 sales recorded in 2015, 1135 a year earlier when the plug-in Outlander came on the scene, while the four-year period between 2010 and 2013 elicited only 706 sales in total.

All up, 5644 EVs have been registered through VFACTS. Less than a thousand of these are privately owned passenger cars (996), and only 669 are privately owned SUVs. Two people have also stumped up for an electric LCV.

Among fleets and business buyers, including those conducting small-scale pilot trials, 1656 electric passenger cars have been recorded, 2297 SUVs and 24 LCVs.

BMW i3

We are mindful that the landscape is changing rapidly and a variety of brands – across both mainstream and prestige classes – are launching new models this year in line with production and targets set by parent companies overseas.

As GoAuto has reported, new EVs expected to be launched this year include the Nissan Leaf – returning to the market mid-year with a new generation – BMW’s i3 120Ah due soon, the Tesla Model 3 set down for late in the second quarter, Hyundai’s Kona Electric compact crossover likewise coming in the first half, and two all-new premium SUVs from big-name brands arriving in the second half of the year: Audi’s e-tron and Mercedes’ EQC.

Aston Martin also has its first EV, the Rapide E, launching here late in the year.

These will not build sales volume to any great extent, but the broader range of brands selling EVs in will see more investment in areas such as vehicle promotion, skills training, recharging infrastructure and, not least of all, the application of pressure on government to play a significant role in ramping up the sector.

Just how far the government – whether Coalition or Labor – is willing to take it, could depend on who is behind the wheel, or the strength of numbers in the house where such decisions are made.

By Terry Martin

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