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CHINA’S vehicle export growth is forecast to slow to 5.8 per cent after reaching 6.2 million units in 2025. This is a significant fall from the 19.3 per cent surge of 2024, according to China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) data.

The cause for the forecast slowdown is a modest rise in vehicle sales within China, where policy incentives are needed to drive demand. The slowing export growth is attributed to a number of factors, including the fallout from European Union tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs).

Reuters reported that in 2024, exports of electric vehicles fell by 10.4 per cent, in stark contrast to the 80.9 per cent rise seen in 2023. 

Meanwhile, exports of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) soared by 190 per cent as car-makers moved towards these models in response to the higher tariffs on EVs.

In response to the EU’s additional tariffs, China has advised its car-makers to curtail significant investments in European nations that endorse these levies on Chinese EVs, Reuters reported in October.Now, Chinese car-makers are adapting their strategies by focusing on hybrid exports to Europe as a countermeasure to the heightened EV tariffs.

In 2025, domestic vehicle sales in China are expected to climb by 4.7 per cent to 32.9 million units this year, following a 4.5 per cent increase in 2024, as per CAAM data.

However, the association forecasts a deceleration in sales growth for new energy vehicles (NEVs), which encompass EVs and plug-in hybrids, to 24.4 per cent in 2025 from 35.5 per cent in the previous year.

CAAM said weak domestic demand, intense competition, and escalating external pressures could have adverse impacts on the automotive market.

During 2024, CAAM said China produced and sold 31.282 million and 31.436 million vehicles in 2024, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 3.7 per cent and 4.5 per cent. Export volume was 5.859 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 19.3 per cent.

The top 10 export brands were:

  • Chery: 1.144 million
  • SAIC: 929,000
  • Changan: 536,000
  • Geely: 532,000
  • Great Wall Motor: 453,000
  • BYD: 433,000
  • BAIC: 274,000
  • Tesla China: 260,000
  • JAC: 249,000
  • Dongfeng: 246,000

Among the top 10 exporters, in terms of growth rate, BYD exported 433,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 71.8 per cent; Changan exported 536,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 49.6 per cent; and JAC exported 249,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 46.7 per cent.

By Neil Dowling

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