Cox Automotive Australia CEO Stephen Lester said despite the difference in the two halves of 2024, it still culminated in an all-time volume record north of 1.2 million cars for the second straight year.
Mr Lester said that as cost-of-living pressures continue to impact the private market, and with supply no longer a major problem “you can expect to see an even harder-fought sector in 2025, with keener pricing and finance options a likely result for private and fleet buyers.”
“Big picture issues to watch include the federal election in April or May, the introduction of the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NEVS), the end of fringe benefits tax concessions for PHEVs, predicted cash rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the ongoing increase in volume from Chinese domestic brands, which captured 12 per cent market share last year,” he said.
“We’re predicting a slight decline in volume this year, and more margin pressure for retailers.”
In his recap of the 2024 results, Mr Lester said the dealer business – tracked in part through the Cox Automotive Australia inventory management platform SmartPublisher and insights platform, AutoRadar – saw inventory increase slightly over the course of 2024 after more significant expansion in 2023 post-COVID, outmatched by faster growth in demand.
The Cox report on the Australian market for 2024 said that supply inventory increased by 1.3 per cent between November and December to make the total up 3.0 per cent for the year. It said that the inventory increase included the supply of used SUVs which rose 6.5 per cent for the year, while the ute supply was up 2.0 per cent.
Top 5 Sold Used Vehicles
“However, reflecting their long-term decline in the new-vehicle market, supply of traditional passenger cars such as sedans and hatchbacks contracted 4.7 per cent,” the report said.
Supply of used EVs and PHEVs increased 108.7 per cent for 2024 compared with 2023, and these vehicles accounted for a record of 0.8 per cent of dealer-listed used inventory, up from 0.4 per cent at the start of 2024.
Cox said it expected further growth in the EV-PHEV sector in 2025 “as a large number of these vehicles hit the age where they’re first turned over.”
The key metric used to measure vehicle supply, Market Days’ Supply, decreased from 68 days at the end of 2023 to 65 days at the end of 2024, because while inventory increased, dealer-used car sales grew at a faster pace.
“To that end, dealer-used sales were up 9.5 per cent overall,” Cox said.
“Within this, SUV sales increased 7.7 per cent, utes increased 15.2 per cent, EVs and PHEVs 14.4 per cent as dealer sentiment around them cooled due to residual value challenges. Passenger cars declined 6.3 per cent because of tightening supply.”
The reports said that while passenger cars have only 16.7 per cent of new market sales now, they still accounted for nearly double this amount (31.2 per cent) in the dealer used market.
Passenger Car Top 5 Sold Used Vehicles in 2024
It said that this pointed to a “deepening supply crunch and subsequent price index increases on vehicles such as the Toyota Corolla and Mazda 3.”
The Price Index declined for the 10th consecutive month in December despite the reduction in Market Day Supply, to 127.1 points, down 5.3 per cent on 2023. About four-in-10 cars were discounted between listing and sale, by an average of 6.9 per cent.
“Older cars continue to retain higher price indexes, denoting their current average selling price compared to December 2019,” it said.
“Younger vehicles (aged under four years) are more impacted by fierce new market competition and emerging discounting,” the report said.
The top-selling dealer-used models were the Ford Ranger (up 26.6 per cent), Toyota Hilux (up 8.8 per cent), Toyota Corolla (up 31.3 per cent), Toyota RAV4 (up 31.5 per cent) and Hyundai i30 (albeit down 0.8 per cent as supply reduced).
“While the overall market for dealer-used passenger cars declined (as mentioned previously), this was not uniform, with retailers clearly focusing on a handful of historically strong performers,” it said.
“The strongest was the Toyota Corolla, sales of which increased 31.3 per cent as supply improved. Corollas also show among the highest residual values (as a percentage of original list price) of any vehicle, and the hybrid in particular is in hot demand. “Other top-sellers in this corner of the market included the Hyundai i30 (down 0.8 per cent), Mazda 3 (up 6.1 per cent), Toyota Camry (up 26.3 per cent), and Kia Cerato (down 0.6 per cent). This means four of the top-selling nameplates were small cars.
“One to watch is the Tesla Model 3, dealer-used sales of which were up 41.8 per cent in 2024.”
The Cox report said that just as the passenger market was led by small cars, the SUV market was led by mid-size contenders, accounting for most of the top-selling new and second-hand models.
The leader in both the new and used markets in 2024 was the Toyota RAV4 (dealer used sales up 31.5 per cent), well ahead of the Mazda CX-5 (up 21.9 per cent), Toyota Prado (up 9.3 per cent and the sole large SUV in the mix), Nissan X-Trail (down 2.1 per cent), and Mitsubishi Outlander (up 3.3 per cent).
About 2.0 per cent of used Outlander volume were PHEVs, making this the leading second-hand plug-in hybrid ahead of the MG HS.
On the EV front, the Tesla Model Y mid-size SUV was the second biggest selling used electric car overall behind its stablemate, up 472.2 per cent on 2023.
Utes Top 5 Sold Used Vehicles 2024
In utes, the Ford Ranger (up 26.6 per cent and Toyota Hilux (up 8.8 per cent) were the two top-selling used vehicles in dealerships in 2024 and dominated the ute market.
The Mitsubishi Triton (up 6.3 per cent), Nissan Navara (down 1.9 per cent) and Isuzu D-Max (up 26.8 per cent) rounded out the top five.
Utes showed the strongest overall volume growth in 2024 compared with 2023 with the market up around 15 per cent at a retailer level, and more concentrated due to few choices in makes and models for buyers.
Utes Top 5 Sold Used Vehicles 2024
“One interesting thing to watch will be the proliferation of second-hand Chinese utes such as the GWM Cannon and LDV T60, which have been gaining market share steadily among cost-conscious sole traders in particular,” the Cox report said.
“On the other side of the LCV coin are vans, with the dominant used player in dealers remaining the Toyota Hiace (up 3.7 per cent and eclipsing the rest of the top five, combined, in volume).
“Next in line were the Hyundai iLoad, Ford Transit Custom, Volkswagen Caddy, and Renault Trafic.”
Mr Lester said while Market Days’ Supply contracted for most vehicles, used prices overall continued to cool across 2024 after hitting their peak in mid-2022, with pressure particularly evident on newer vehicles impacted by increased supply in the new and demonstrator markets.
About 40 per cent of all dealer-used cars sold were discounted, by an average of 6.9 per cent.
Monthly Active Listings
Mr Lester said that Cox also saw dealers becoming “more ‘choosey” with their stock profile, with strong volume growth for a handful of known-quantity models such as the Ford Ranger and Toyota Corolla.
“It was a terrific year for our Manheim auction business, which increased wholesale volume by more than 35 per cent, driven by record fleet and lease volume, and strong growth from manufacturer, dealer and government vehicles coming through the lanes.
“We saw double-digit growth in all states and territories.”
Cox saw that EVs remained a small percentage of Manheim auction sales in 2024 but that the volume of EVs increased a significant 116.2 per cent over the previous year.
“We expect this number to leap again in 2025, as we launch more dedicated EV-only auctions with a focus on the private market,” Mr Lester said.
Looking forward, he said that 2025 “is shaping up to be another interesting ride.”
“If the new vehicle market’s trend from the second half of 2024 continues into 2025, it will impact later-model used cars sold at retail and wholesale levels, though demand for older stock is expected to remain high, placing upward pressure on prices,” he said.
By Neil Dowling and John Mellor