A DEEP dive into October’s market data shows that the Cox Automotive Dealer Delisted Price Index has declined in 20 of the last 21 months while passenger cars are holding more elevated prices compared to pre-COVID levels than SUVs.

The latest data show that sales and supply of used cars in Australian dealerships remain at or around their highest points since before the pandemic, while average prices have fallen back to their lowest level since January 2021.

The data also revealed that four-in-10 dealer-used vehicles sold in October 2024 were discounted between listing and sale, by an average of 7.0 per cent per vehicle, indicating a degree of disconnect between valuations and pricing.

The October report said that, in what has become a familiar pattern, passenger cars (hatchbacks and sedans principally) continue to maintain more elevated pricing on the Cox Automotive Dealer Delisted Price Index than SUVs and light commercials. Older stock likewise retains more inflated pricing than younger cars.

The latest retail used vehicle data comes from Cox Automotive Australia (Cox), which makes and supports dealer retail software including inventory and customer lead management platforms, and website design. Cox tracks a majority of vehicles listed in Australian retail dealers in any given month.

October used vehicle sales in the Cox database were up 11.8 per cent year-on-year (YoY), with total sales the second highest for a calendar month in four years – trailing only August 2024. 

Year-to-date used car sales are up 9.6 per cent, while year-to-date inventory has increased by about 5.0 per cent as cars enter the market.

Average selling times across all vehicle types are between 40 and 41 days per vehicle, while average Market Days’ Supply is 63 days, down 3.7 per cent YoY – suggesting demand has outpaced supply to a small degree.

The biggest-selling used cars for October were the Ford Ranger (up 2.4 per cent MoM), Toyota HiLux (down 2.5 per cent), Toyota RAV4 (up 9.1 per cent as supply replenishes after years of shortages), Toyota Corolla (up 0.5 per cent), and Hyundai i30 (down 6.4 per cent, as expected given declining sales in the new market).

The Cox Price Index ended October at 128.2, down 7.0 per cent over the last 12 months and down 1.0 per cent over September. This number means an average market wide price increase on used cars of 28.2 per cent over December 2019, the Index’s baseline, a period nearing five years.

Average used car selling prices in dealers are now 13.2 per cent lower than they were at the market’s peak in August 2022, when the Price Index hit 148.1. But the discrepancies that exist amongst vehicle types which we have seen for the past few years, remain.

Passenger vehicle supply is not as robust as SUV and ute supply due to what’s been happening in the new market over the past decade, therefore average prices here remain more elevated.

Over the past 12 months dealer inventory of used hatches, sedans and wagons is up only 0.3 per cent. Over the same time, the inventory of SUVs is up 7.7 per cent and Utes are up 11.7 per cent.

It’s clear where the growth is coming from.

To that end, the respective Price Indexes for vehicle types are not the same. Passenger Cars have an Index 140.5, so 40.,5% more elevated than their December 2019 levels. Meanwhile SUVs are 121.3, Utes are 128.1, and EVs & PHEVs are 107.9 – the latter with a lot of volatility due to smaller sample size.

To give this added context, the average selling price of a 2–4-year-old Passenger Car has declined from $37,232 to $36,902 over the past 12 months, a drop of 0.9%. Over the same period the average selling price of a 2-4-year-old SUV has declined from $46,571 to $41,033, which is a much starker 11.9%.

Meanwhile, supply of second-hand EVs and PHEVs is up 43.6 per cent YoY, and sales of second-hand EVs and PHEVs are up a robust 51.9 per cent – though these electric vehicles still only account for 0.4 per cent of the overall used market. Cox said it expects this to change quickly from 2025.

The report said: “In terms of vehicle ages, we see more elevated Price Indexes on older brackets compared to younger ones, likely due to the two-fold impact of demand for older cars amidst household economic challenges, and plentiful new car supply driving discounts, which knock-on to late-model used vehicles in predictable fashion.

Average prices of all used vehicles aged under 2 years are up only 6.7 per cent over December 2019 (106.7 on the Price Index), whereas prices for 2–4-year-old vehicles are up 17% over this period, 5–7-year-old cars are up 23.7 per cent, and 8–10-year-old cars are up 39.6 per cent. 

The older the car, the stickier the pricing.

Mike Costello

Another way to look at changes in used prices is to track average residual value (RV) returns, expressed as the percentage of the original RRP before on-road costs that a used car sold for. There has been a significant decline in this metric across all vehicles since the mid-2022 market highs.

For instance, the average RV of a 2–4-year-old Passenger Car has fallen from 90.7 per cent of RRP in October 2022, to 78.4 per cent in October 2024. For SUVs these respective figures are 91.2 per cent RV (October 2022) to 77.4 per cent RV (October 2024).

Cox Automotive Australia corporate affairs manager Mike Costello said: “The dealer used car market right now has seen monthly Price Index declines for 20 of the past 21 months, with average selling prices down to early 2021 levels.

 “Both used car sales and dealer inventories have spent the past few months at their highest levels since the beginning of the COVID period, with prices coming back to the highest degrees on younger vehicles, and SUVs which are in better supply, due to their huge popularity in the new market.

“It’s pleasing to see significant uptick in supply of, and demand for, used EVs and PHEVs as well, with the figures up 43.6 per cent and 51.9 per cent respectively over the past 12 months. With the first large wave of new EVs hitting the market in 2022, we expect to see a lot of growth in this sector from 2025.”

“The expected residual value on 2–4-year-old used EVs sold in the past six months is around 62 per cent, compared to almost 80 per cent for ICE passenger cars and SUVs,” Mr Costello said. 

“This is an issue that won’t go away any time soon, and one of key interest to the fleet market in particular,” he said.