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EUROPE will become the world’s biggest EV market from 2030, overtaking the US and China, as European EV registrations accelerate and sales exceed 70 per cent of the market, according to industry predictions.

The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) analysed trends and developments in battery electric vehicle (BEVs) markets and found that while China is currently ahead of Europe and the US in the electrification of the car market, the European market will rebound in 2025 and take the lead again on the other world regions by 2030.

“So far in 2022, nearly 20 per cent of all new cars registered in China are BEVs, meaning that the country is now ahead of Europe and well ahead of the US in the electrification of the car market,” ACEA’s report said.

“However, the share of battery electric cars is expected to reach almost 30 per cent of the European market by 2025 and to exceed 70 per cent by 2030 – taking the lead again on the other world regions.”

But it said that while the sales mix of EVs in Europe would be greater than other markets, China would remain the dominant manufacturer and become the dominant exporter of EVs to markets, including Europe.

The prediction coincides with Toyota confirming it will launch an additional five full-electric vehicles in Europe under its bZ sub-brand by 2026. It already sells the bZ4X mid-size SUV in Europe and, from the second half of next year, in Australia.

Toyota plans 50 per cent of its sales in its Europe region – which includes Turkey, Israel and several Eurasian countries – to come from full-electric vehicles by 2030, ahead of the EU’s mandate that only zero-emission cars can be sold after 2035.

By 2025, Toyota estimates that 10 per cent of its European region sales will be full-electric, with 80 per cent coming from hybrid and plug-in hybrid models. This year, 66 per cent of its sales will be hybrid, Toyota predicted.

Toyota launched the bZ4X this year after focusing on building out a range of full-hybrid models to meet its EU emissions targets.

It also plans from mid-2024 to sell full-electric large vans built by Stellantis and marketed as names including the Fiat Ducato, but branded as Toyotas.

Toyota Motor Europe head Matt Harrison said Toyota will expand its full-electric passenger-car line up which “indicates our clear commitment to battery-electric vehicles.”

The coming bZ lineup includes small and compact SUV/crossovers, and three larger models. The bZ models will be sold internationally.

Volkswagen has also been reported to be following Tesla, BMW and other car-makers by exporting its EVs from China to Europe.

The reason is tightening production capacities in European factories hit by shortages of components, labour issues and transport holdups.

Volkswagen said in an interview with Automotive News Europe that its Spanish brand Cupra will produce its first full-electric SUV, the Tavascan, at one of its joint ventures’ factories in the Chinese eastern province of Anhui.

The Tavascan is built on the same platform as the full-electric Volkswagen ID series and is planned to go on sale in Europe in 2024. It is Cupra’s second model based on the MEB platform after the Born hatchback.

Volkswagen said in a statement that: “The Anhui factory was the plant with the right capacity and technology at the time of production planning.”

It said it has no plans to produce other vehicles in China for export.

Electric models already being shipped from Chinese factories to European showrooms include Tesla’s Model 3, BMW’s iX3 and Renault’s Dacia Spring.

International accounting consultancy PwC recently predicted that car-makers will annually sell 800,000 cars imported into Europe from China.

It said that of the potential 800,000 Chinese-built cars, about 330,000 would be from Western automakers such as Tesla, BMW and Renault Group.

“While Chinese manufacturers are selling more and more BEVs in Europe, both European and American manufacturers are increasingly shifting their BEV production to China,” PwC said in a statement.

Felix Kuhnert, partner and automotive leader at PwC Germany, said European automakers continued to face supply chain issues and were focusing on building more-expensive (and lower-volume) EVs in Europe.

“Chinese manufacturers, on the other hand, have optimised and developed their products in the domestic market, so that they are now bringing affordable BEV models, innovative technology and novel concepts to Europe,” Mr Kuhnert said in the release.

By Neil Dowling

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