ELECTRIC vehicles are predicted to exceed 40 per cent of global new car sales by 2030, with the sales growth expected to be led by China with a domestic share of 80 per cent, according to forecasts announced by the International Energy Agency.

It said that the growth points to the long-term trajectory of EV adoption.

Electric car sales exceeded 17 million globally in 2024, reaching a sales share of more than 14 per cent while the IEA said demonstrated “a significant and accelerating global adoption rate.”

“Projections indicate further momentum with more than 20 million sales expected in 2025, representing more than one-quarter of cars sold worldwide, with a 35 per cent year-on-year  increase in the first three months of 2025,” it said.

In the expansion of EV sales, the IEA said that it would effectively replace more than five-million barrels of oil a day globally in 2030 that it said highlighted a “significant energy security implication” and that half of those savings in oil would be achieved in China.China maintained its lead, with electric cars accounting for almost half of all car sales in 2024.

On Chinese roads now, one-in-10 cars are electric which the agency said “highlighted deep market penetration.”

More than 11 million electric cars were sold in China in 2024 – exceeding total global sales in 2022,” it said.

“Projections for 2025 indicate electric cars are expected to reach around 60 per cent of total car sales in China, driven by continued incentives for replacing older vehicles and falling EV prices.” 

In its regional projections of EV uptake by 2030, the agency said China would continue to see EV growth because of “significant market momentum and competitively-priced EVs”.

In Europe, it said carbon dioxide (CO2) targets supported the ability of an EV sales share of “close to 60 per cent”.

“The sales share is expected to rise to 25 per cent in 2025, driven by emissions standards in the European Union and the United Kingdom, despite flexibility given to car-makers for meeting the 2025 EU emissions reduction target.” In the US, EV sales are projected to reach around 20 per cent sales share with the “more modest growth than previous outlooks indicating a potential lag without stronger policy.”

The agency said that sales “stagnated in 2024 around a 20 per cent sales share as subsidy schemes and other supportive policies waned.”

Electric car sales in the US grew by about 10 per cent year-on-year in 2024, reaching more than one-in-10 cars sold. 

“The 2025 outlook is uncertain based on current policy, but sales are currently expected to maintain the 10 per cent growth observed in the first quarter, potentially reaching 11 per cent of total car sales as consumers leverage existing  tax credits before potential repeal,” the agency said of the US market. 

The South East Asia region was expected to reach 25 per cent electric car sales share, boosted by strong policy support and available domestic manufacturing capacity. 

“Two/three-wheelers are expected to electrify even faster, reaching almost one-in-three sales,” the agency said.

Electric car sales grew by nearly 50 per cent to represent 9 per cent of all car sales in the region, with notably higher sales shares in Thailand and Vietnam. 

“This growth is supported by strong policy support and available domestic manufacturing  capacity,” it said. 

In Brazil, the IEA said Brazilian EV sales more than doubled to 125,000 in 2024, reaching a sales share of over 6 per cent “significantly influenced by affordable Chinese imports.”“Sales in Africa also more than doubled, mostly due to growth in Egypt and Morocco, though electric cars still represent less than 1 per cent of total car sales across the continent.”

In the emerging markets, the IEA said Asia and Latin America were becoming new growth centres, with electric car sales jumping by over 60 per cent in 2024 to almost 600,000. 

“Policy support and relatively affordable electric car imports from China played a central role in this  increase, accounting for 85 per cent of electric car sales in both Brazil and Thailand, for example,” it said.

“Across all emerging economies outside of China, Chinese imports made up 75 per cent of the increase in electric car sales in 2024. 

“Sales are expected to continue growing strongly, increasing by 50 per cent to reach 1 million in 2025.”

The agency said it saw three main “headwinds” – economic changes; price parity; and charging infrastructure.

Economic changes: The IEA said that uncertainty about the evolution of trade and industrial policy, downside risks to the economic outlook, and lower oil prices could affect EV uptake and overall car markets. 

“Higher tariffs might increase prices, lower GDP could dampen sales, and lower oil prices affect fuel cost savings,” it said.

Price Parity: While the average price of battery electric cars fell in 2024, the purchase price  gap with conventional cars persisted in many markets. 

For example, the agency said that in Germany, the average BEV price remained 20 per cent higher, and in the US, 30 per cent more expensive.

“In contrast, two-thirds of all electric cars sold in China in 2024 were priced lower than their  conventional equivalents, even without incentives,” it said.

Charging Infrastructure: It said that public charger build-out in the US and UK has not kept pace with EV deployment, leading to an increased number of EVs per public charging point in 2024. 

“Globally, public charging capacity for light-duty EVs would need to grow by almost ninefold to 2030 to support projected sales,” it said.

The IEA also said that China continues to be the world’s EV manufacturing hub and is responsible for more than 70 per cent of global production.

“Global electric car trade increased by 20 per cent in 2024, with imports now representing almost one-fifth of global electric car sales. China accounted for the largest share of global exports at 40 per cent.

“Chinese EV export markets are diversifying as automakers make headway in Brazil, Mexico, and South East Asia, often supported by relatively affordable pricing. 

“Potential tariffs are prompting manufacturers to frontload exports or seek new markets.”

There were also technological and economic drivers affecting the EV sales. The IEA highlighted three areas:  Declining battery prices; improving affordability; and advancements in charging.

Declining Battery Prices: Low critical mineral prices and increased competition between battery manufacturers drove down battery pack prices in all markets in 2024, with the most  significant drop of around 30 per cent in China, compared to 10-15 per cent in Europe and the US.

Improving Affordability: Chinese electric car models are typically cheaper than the average EV in emerging markets. 

In Thailand, the average BEV price has reached parity with conventional cars, and Chinese EVs are even cheaper. In Brazil and Mexico, the price gap has  significantly shrunk due to increased Chinese imports. 

Advancements in Charging: The number of ultra-fast chargers grew by about 50 per cent in 2024. Government efforts to promote interoperability, standardisation, smart charging, and vehicle-to-grid integration are seen as key to easing the transition to EVs. China and the UK stand out for policy implementation in this area.