Roy Morgan Research shows that the intention to buy a new car within the next four years has fallen to 2.28 million people – down from 2.49 million in February – despite the year starting with record car sales.

Roy Morgan’s automotive account manager Rob Heneghan said the car sales momentum has since stalled and puts that down to a fall in consumer confidence.

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), January 2002 – May 2017, rolling monthly, average quarterly sample n= 13,325 Australians 14+.

He said the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index showed a decrease to 113.8 points in July, down from 118.6 in January, and that one of the biggest drops had been amongst the most affluent groups, Leading Lifestyles.

This group makes up the biggest portion of new-car intenders and has a strong preference to Japanese brands – and those that make up the bulk of sales – such as Toyota, Mazda and Subaru.

Mr Heneghan said consumer confidence was often the main factor affecting car-buying intentions and a fall in the points indicated that Australians were less confident about their finances now than they were at the beginning of 2017.

“The recent downturn has been reflected in lower numbers of passenger and commercial vehicles intenders, but SUV intention has continued growing, adding another 30,000 intenders since January,” he said.

It is this Australian love affair with the SUV that has seen them overtake passenger cars as the nation’s favourite vehicle over the past 12 months.

Roy Morgan Research’s previous car-buying intention data reported in February that respondents had an optimistic outlook on their financial situation and the prospects for the national economy.

It said that this confidence had “helped drive tens of thousands to make one particular New Year’s resolution: buy themselves a new car this year.”

The research said an estimated 618,000 Australians then planned to buy a new car by the end of the 2017 year, up more than 50,000 than those surveyed at the end of 2016.

“This new-year uptick is supported by further growth in the broader, longer term market – and higher confidence about Australia’s longer term economic conditions,” it said.

“Overall 2,373,000 Australians intend to buy a new car in the next four years – the most prospective buyers since early 2015.”

At this time Roy Morgan noticed a growth in the high-end Leading Lifestyle group, and a reduction in the traditional suburban middle-class buyer groups known as “Today’s Families” and “Aussie Achievers”.

At the start of 2016, these two segments represented 24 per cent of the new car market; by early 2017 they fell to 21 per cent of buyers.

“Given this growth in Leading Lifestyles, it’s no coincidence that brands such as BMW, Volkswagen and Mazda have started the year on a positive note – all registering increased purchase consideration since December,” the early 2017 report said.

“With this shifting of the marketplace, automotive brands need to ensure they stay on top of where their current drivers, repeat customers, and new intending buyers fit.”

By Neil Dowling