The shock prediction by UK-based management and technology consultants PA Consulting reports that Tesla will be the volume seller of EVs in 2019, but by 2021 will fall to seventh on the global EV manufacturer list.
PA Consulting has based its prediction on an aggressive plan by Mercedes-Benz to start its EQ electric vehicle sub-brand next year and sell electric versions of all car models in the group by 2022.
Mercedes-Benz has announced EV manufacturing plans at six factories in three continents and, in the US alone, will invest $A1.4 billion to build the EQ range and batteries in the US.
Next year it will build and market its first EQ, the EQC SUV.
It will make Mercedes-Benz the leader in EV sales, followed by BMW and the Alliance, then Volkswagen, Volvo and Toyota.
The consultancy ranked EV players in six areas, giving them a score out of 100.
The areas were: technology (models and roadmap); battery technology; culture and incentives; supplier network; charging technology and third-party services; and financial performance.
PA Consulting’s head of automotive, Thomas Goettle, said car-makers will have to both achieve increasingly stringent CO2 targets and improve their sales performance.
“However, this call to action will come with a huge impact on the companies’ staff resources,” he said.
“Our research shows that the roles of 267,000 employees at 16 brands across Europe will be under threat, of which 141,000 employees may need requalification – all within the next decade.
“To improve their future mobility performance score and meet CO2 targets by 2021, car-makers should not only accelerate and realign their new product development, they need to consider value creation in their supply chain and increase sales by customer focus.”
PA Consulting said that Tesla faces an uncertain future due to production problems of Model 3 and its profit expectations.
However, it said Tesla may be able to overcome some of those issues after signing an agreement with Chinese authorities to build a factory in Shanghai. The Gigafactory would be Tesla’s first outside of the US.
Future Mobility Performance Score – 2019 vs. 2021
Car maker | Future mobility score 2019 | Rank in 2019 | Future mobility score 2021 | Rank in 2021 |
Tesla | 82 | 1 | 81 | 7 |
Renault/Nissan
/Mitsubishi |
79 | 2 | 85 | 3 |
BMW | 78 | 3 | 87 | 2 |
Hyundai Kia | 72 | 4 | 79 | 8 |
Daimler | 71 | 5 | 88 | 1 |
Volvo | 70 | 6 | 83 | 5 |
Volkswagen | 69 | 7 | 84 | 4 |
Toyota | 66 | 8 | 82 | 6 |
General Motors | 62 | 9 | 68 | 10 |
Jaguar/Land Rover | 60 | 10 | 75 | 9 |
PSA/Citroen/Opel | 58 | 11 | 66 | 11 |
Ford | 45 | 12 | 61 | 12 |
Fiat Chrysler | 30 | 13 | 41 | 13 |
By Neil Dowling