AUSTRALIA’S push to join other leading industrialised nations by adopting the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) has boosted the availability of low and zero-emission vehicles and set a course where it is now being forecast that 50 per cent of new sales will be electric by 2030.

The outlook, based on government targets and policy settings, reaffirms a belief by the head of future business at EV charge company JET Charge, Kristian Handberg, that a major EV adoption move is now underway.

In his ‘EV Market Outlook for Australia’ he said government targets, expanding charging networks, and more models hitting the road cement his belief – and that of the government’s senate committee that tabled its findings in May 2024 – that the 50 per cent EV sales level will trigger the next step to 100 per cent new EV sales by 2050.

Mr Handberg said that in the lead up to 2050, he saw new EV sales accounting for 11 per cent of new cars by the end of 2025 (up from 9 per cent in 2024), roughly equivalent to 130,000 units.

He said that 17 per cent of medium SUVs – the highest selling new-vehicle segment – sold in 2025 will be EVs.

“We will see a major increase of EV models thanks to the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES), where all manufacturers have to sell a larger number of low-emissions vehicles to offset higher emission vehicle sales,” he said.

“There will be potentially 10 new medium-size EV SUVs potentially available in 2025, which will be 40 models for buyers to choose from, up from 30 in 2024.”

He said that the majority of sales are likely to be claimed by the Tesla Model Y (which is having a major update under the Jupiter facelift this year), and the BYD Sealion 6 and 7.

There are also forecast to be 26 small SUV EV models in 2025, an increase from the 19 models available in 2024, giving buyers even more choices in the EV market.

EV sales will also receive a boost with the emergence of EV utes.

Kristian Handberg

“Utes are the second-highest selling segment in the vehicle market and until now, it has been without EV options,” he said.

“While the BYD Shark PHEV launched late last year, deliveries only began in 2025. JET Charge predicts 12,000 EV utes will be sold in 2025, primarily BYD Shark PHEV but also GWM Cannon PHEV.”

Also available are the LDV Terron 9 and Geely Riddara RD6 fully electric utes and, from 2022, the LDV eT60 ute which was the first volume production electrified ute in Australia.

Electrified utes are also earmarked from Kia (Tasman), KGM SsangYong (Torres), and Ford (F150 Lightning) and also from companies including JAC.

Mr Handberg also sees small electric passenger vehicles to drop in price “and make EVs more affordable than ever, with an entry price point of $30,000.”

“The cheapest EV options include the BYD Dolphin, Leapmotor T03, MG4 and GWM Ora,” he said.

“This segment will make for 17,000 EV sales in 2025.”

By Neil Dowling