A GLIMPSE into the future, as forecast by Cox Automotive Australia, shows US tariffs will impact Australia’s economy and affect the share market and currency flows while key issues facing dealers and motorists include the government’s new vehicle efficiency standard (NVES) and the US-China trade fight. 

Cox Automotive Australia said other factors ahead include the sales decline of 30 per cent for battery electric vehicles, against the rise in sales of plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) despite the end of tax exemptions for PHEVs.

Cox Automotive Australia’s CEO Stephen Lester, in releasing the market insights report for the first quarter, said the first three months were “dynamic and challenging across the new, dealer-used, and wholesale car markets – in some ways without precedent.”

Stephen Lester

He said the dealer-used sector for Q1 had higher prices, faster sales and lower volumes. Cox’s auction arm, Manheim, had a 5 per cent growth in wholesale volume in the quarter supported by its investments in digital services and auctioneer training.

He said that while volume growth levels “cooled” in 2025 compared with the first quarter of 2024, selling prices increased and selling periods decreased.

“This is potentially good news for used vehicle dealers who are currently up against it when it comes to issues such as increased floorplan costs and margin compression,” he said.

“We’re seeing particularly strong average dealer used selling prices on passenger hatches and sedans which are thin on the ground, and on older assets – potentially the result of increased competition from households feeling the pinch.”

Mr Lester said that as new vehicle prices come down – with discounts expected to increase on the back of growing new-vehicle inventories – this “will likely impact the value of younger used assets in both retail and wholesale spaces.”  Dealer used vehicle inventory tracked by Cox increased 8.1 per cent in March 2025 compared with February 2025, and 4.7 per cent higher than March 2024.

“However, stock levels remain below where they were between July and December of 2024,” Mr Lester said.Cox data shows the Top 5 active used car listings in March, compared with March 2024, are led by the Ford Ranger (up 11 per cent), followed by four Toyota products, Hilux (up 11 per cent), Corolla (up 2.9 per cent), RAV4 (up 8.4 per cent) and Prado (up 17.6 per cent).The Top 5 sold used vehicles were the Ford Ranger (up 3.2 per cent year-on-year), Hilux (up 7.5 per cent YoY), Corolla (down 3.6 per cent YoY), RAV4 (up 5 per cent), and Hyundai i30 (down 15.1 per cent).

Cox said that the dips in Corolla and i30 are likely to be attributed to less throughput than demand, as reflected by the ongoing high price indexes for these types of vehicles.

In an overview of the Manheim operation, Mr Lester said that while volume from the government and leasing sectors was cool in the first quarter, there was a 50 per cent increase in surplus dealer trade-ins and Manheim’s team signed up 70 new dealer vendor partners in the quarter.

“It’s an exciting time to be in the car business and Cox, with its vehicle remarketing and dealer software products, is right in the thick of it with touchpoints across all areas of the sector.”

While used vehicles performed well in the first quarter, Cox noted that new vehicle sales hit a record in March but fell overall for the quarter. This was attributed to what Cox said were “economic challenges and pre-election fleet cooling.”

In the quarter, new-vehicle sales were 295,952 units, down 2.9 per cent compared with the same period in 2024. The Cox report said that was in line with its previous annual forecast of 1.18 million new vehicle sales in the 2025 calendar year.

Mr Lester notes that there are now two Chinese brands in the Top 10 of Australian new-vehicle sales – GWM and MG – while five are in the Top 20. Together with MG and GWM, they are BYD, Chery and LDV.

“Cox expects about 20 per cent of total industry volume this year to come from Chinese domestic OEMs,” he said.

In the quarter, the highest seller was the Toyota RAV4 followed by the Ford Ranger. The remaining eight were all utes or SUVs.