CRYSTAL balls targeting the future of transport are clouding as experts disagree on what will power cars in 2030 as the pro-electric group spark off with those believing firmly in a continuation of diesel and petrol fuels.

One major study into the future of the automotive industry by US-based business solutions firm Alix Partners said electric and hybrid vehicles will account for 65 per cent of all new-car sales by 2030.

At that time, electric cars will cost about the same as petrol and diesel-fuelled cars, the report said.

However, Ricardo plc chief technical officer Professor Neville Jackson told GoAutoNews Premium recently that he is less bullish than many car-makers in predicting a future where electric vehicles replace internal combustion engines.

“I don’t hold the view that we are headed very soon to an electric vehicle future,” Prof Jackson said.

“Electric vehicles are only part of the solution. When the transport situation suits it, electric vehicles make sense, such as for short journeys in the city.

“Plug-in hybrids also have advantages for longer journeys. But we have to remember that, at the moment, to get a 300km range from an electric vehicle requires a battery weighing up to 700kg.

“For the future, say to 2030, I see more of the same.”

In the report titled “A Watershed Moment for the Automotive Industry”, Alix Partners said increasingly stringent emission regulations will become expensive for car-makers to meet with existing technologies.

 

 

“By 2030, the share of diesel cars in Europe could drop from the current 55 per cent to nine per cent; that of petrol cars will fall from 45 per cent to 25 per cent; while hybrids and electric vehicles will cover two-thirds of new sales, of which 20 per cent would be battery-powered, and therefore produce zero emissions,” Alix Partners said.

Hydrogen fuel-cell engines, however, “won’t reach considerable volumes by 2030”, the group concluded.

Alix Partners managing director Andrew Bergbaum said: “The automotive industry has to cope with perhaps the biggest upheaval since Henry Ford.”

“In 2030, half of all cars are expected to have an electric or hybrid powertrain and almost all cars may well be connected,” he said.

The company said that “the rise of the electric powertrain is unstoppable” and points to Volkswagen’s diesel scandal as being the precursor to a series of emissions scares across the globe.

“Multiple recent studies have revealed that most of today’s cars, when tested under real driving conditions, exceed regulatory emissions limits in both carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxide by factors of five to nine,” the report said.

“Future emissions tests are expected to be changed to reflect real-world driving conditions, and that will have an enormous impact on the industry.

“Although cars can meet near-future emissions standards by way of diesel and petrol engines, the cost of emissions reduction technologies will increase significantly.

“By 2030, if the same purchasing incentives exist, consumers will not see any noticeable differences between the price of a traditionally powered vehicle and a fully electric one.”

Because of this, it predicts that car-makers will adjust their model range and production levels over the next 15 years.

Alix Partners said there will be a progressively increasing proportion of battery-powered electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and mild hybrids with 48-volt technology.

“Such vehicles are predicted to represent 35-40 per cent of all new car sales by 2025, increasing to more than 65 per cent in 2030,” the report said.

“Those gains will be at the detriment of the diesel engine, which is expected to completely lose its cost advantages in smaller vehicles and hence market share by 2030.”

But Prof Jackson isn’t so sure. He said in the future he expected greater efficiencies in engines and much greater electrification “that is, from micro-hybrids to 48-Volt systems, to hybrids and plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles”.

“This will go on for some time. Consumers will still be offered internal combustion engines,” he said.

“But if you want performance, there will be more emphasis on electric. I can see all performance cars having to change to using electrification.

“But I think the internal combustion engine has a long way to go.”

Alix Partners argues that because of the customer move to electric cars, manufacturers will have to change factories and production processes as existing engine production declines.

Battery-electric vehicles will also lead to a growing need for a charging infrastructure.

“In such cities as London, for example, around 75 per cent of households do not have off-street parking, and a robust public charging infrastructure will be critical,” the report said.

“The study calculates by 2030 a global demand for more than 300 million charging stations in the 488 cities around the world with populations of more than one million, which represents an investment of €3.7 trillion ($A5.4 trillion).”

The report also indicated that global car sales will continue to increase in the coming years.

Alix Partners said that by 2023, car sales will reach 110 million a year – up from 88 million in the 2015 calendar year – with 60 per cent of the growth from China.

Global car sales are averaging a growth rate of 2.8 per cent a year but China is recording a 6.0 per cent growth.

India and the Middle East are also expected to see above-average growth, with Alix Partners saying Iran will be one of the biggest contributors.

“The US automotive market, however, is predicted to stagnate between 2018 and 2020, after which point it will slowly recover towards 17 million units by 2022,” the report said.

“In Europe, car sales are expected to be boosted by growth in eastern and southern Europe.”

Though Australia was not specified in its report, Alix Partners said the South-East Asian region will have “good growth prospects” but that there would be a decline in Japan and Korea.

By Neil Dowling