USED EV sales have rocketed since tensions in the Middle East have impacted on fuel prices, leading to an unprecedented surge in demand and a ripple effect through the EV sector that has also shown a big jump in retained values.

The latest AutoGrab Market Intelligence Report for Australia has reflected a global trend in vehicle sales sparked by fears of oil rationing and rising petrol and diesel bowser prices.

The report said that since February 28 – when the US and Israel began attacking Iran – the Australian car market had shown a 40 per cent plunge in the number of EVs listed for sale, a near-tripling of sales and an increase in retained values from 77.3 per cent to 91.9 per cent.

In its report, AutoGrab said the driver for the acceleration of interest in EVs was the national average wholesale petrol price leapt by 58 per cent while diesel almost doubled (165.4c/litre to 310.6c/l) since the end of February. 

In its market report, AutoGrab said the price rises have meant a $1800 increase in annual fuel costs for a private vehicle travelling 15,000 kilometres per year on petrol.

“For a business operating a diesel commercial vehicle at 30,000 kilometres per year, the impact is closer to $5000 annually,” it said. 

“At these price levels, the operational cost advantage of electric vehicles has become difficult to overlook and is a material factor in the acceleration of used EV demand observed across the 2021 to 2025-built vehicles.”  

It has naturally focused attention on EVs. EV listings have fallen 40 per cent since February 14 – from 3549 to 2113 units nationally – and the decline is accelerating, it said.

AutoGrab’s chief commercial officer, Saxon Odgers

Daily EV sales have almost tripled since mid-February, from 53 units to 141, driving a sharp supply-demand inversion. 

To assist dealers and EV buyers, AutoGrab has launched an accurate daily EV tracker tool to help manage inventory risk and show exactly how EV demand and trade-in values are shifting across the country.

Available on the AutoGrab website, ‘EV Pulse’ monitors the Australian used EV market, covering vehicles built between 2021 and 2025. It tracks three key metrics: Supply and demand, retained value (%) movement, and days-to-sell. 

All metrics are smoothed over a rolling seven-day window to remove day-of-week noise and surface the underlying trend.

AutoGrab’s chief commercial officer, Saxon Odgers, said that the Australian used EV market had shifted sharply over the past few weeks.He said that the drop in listings and rise in sales had “created a rapid and pronounced supply-demand imbalance”.

“This is translating directly into pricing: 2025-build EVs, which make up the largest share of available stock, have seen retained values increase by over 10 percentage points in just three weeks,” he said.

“This is not simply short-term volatility – it’s a structural response to rising fuel costs, which are fundamentally reshaping buyer behaviour.

“For dealers and fleet operators, this environment presents a very favourable window. High-demand stock is converting quickly, margins are improving, and newer EVs are commanding premium pricing.

“The main factor to watch moving forward is supply: if listings do not recover through Q2, we expect continued upward pressure on values and increasing competition for quality stock. 

“Monitoring retained value trends and sales velocity on a weekly basis will be critical to making the most of this market.”

AutoGrab’s report noted that 2025-build vehicles have seen the strongest gain in retained value (RV%) and have risen from 77.3 per cent on February 14 to 91.9 per cent by March 29.

AutoGrab’s March market intelligence report said that through the first half of February 2026, Australia’s used EV market “was in equilibrium”.

“The seven-day moving average national listings for vehicles built between 2021 and 2025 climbed from 3549 units on February 14 to 3590 units on February 25,” it said.

“Daily sales were rising in the low-to-mid sixties, with no sign of market stress. The market was balanced through to February 28, supply was adequate and sales were steady. 

“On February 28, listings registered 3565 units and daily sales sat at 70 units on the seven-day moving average. 

“From February 28 onwards, listings began an uninterrupted decline.

“By March 29 they had dropped to 2113, a reduction of 1436 units – or about 40 per cent – in four weeks. The rate of decline has not moderated.” 

The report said daily sales accelerated through the same period. From 70 units on February 28, the seven-day moving average climbed to 141 units on March 29 while supply contracted. 

“Used EV stock is shrinking,” AutoGrab said.

“At the same time, sales are accelerating so the gap between supply and demand is closing at a pace the pre-conflict market never came close to.”

As of March 29, 2026, the seven-day moving average shows total national EV inventory at 2113 units with 141 daily sales across all build years. 

The 2025-built vehicle accounts  for the largest share of available stock at 743 units while converts the fewest sales relative to inventory, reflecting buyers taking more time on higher-priced vehicles.

AutoGrab said the 2023-built vehicle year was the most actively-traded segment with a seven-day moving average of 36 daily sales against 461 units listed, the tightest supply-to-demand ratio.  

“The 2022 and 2021-built years carry the smallest inventory at 334 and 177 units respectively, consistent with older vehicles naturally leaving the used market over time,” it said.

The Australian Institute of Petroleum data shows that national average wholesale fuel prices provide the clearest context for the shift in buyer behaviour observed since February 28.

Prior to the conflict, both petrol and diesel prices were stable and consistent with recent historical trends.  “Petrol surged from 156.2 cents per litre on February 28 to 246.9 cents by March 29, a 58 per cent increase in under three weeks,” it said.

“Diesel climbed the most, from 165.4 cents to 310.6 cents over the same period. Retail prices at the pump track wholesale movements with a short lag and have risen accordingly. 

“For a private vehicle travelling 15,000 kilometres per year on petrol, the annualised fuel cost increase is about $1800. 

“For a business operating a diesel commercial vehicle at 30,000 kilometres per year, the impact is closer to $5000 annually.  

“At these price levels, the operational cost advantage of electric vehicles has become difficult to overlook and is a material factor in the acceleration of used EV demand observed across the 2021 to 2025-built vehicles.”  

The report said that the fuel price movement since February 28 was not a temporary market  fluctuation. 

“It reflects a structural shift in the cost of running a petrol or diesel vehicle that buyers are already responding to. 

“For as long as wholesale fuel prices remain above current levels, the economic case for used EV ownership strengthens and available used EVs may continue to tighten.” 

Along with more demand for EVs and rising vehicle prices, the days-to-sell have been rising since February 28, “which looks counterintuitive against a backdrop of accelerating demand”.

“The explanation is that the most competitively-priced stock sells first, leaving higher-priced or less mainstream vehicles that take longer convert,” AutoGrab said.

“The rising figure reflects the composition of remaining inventory, not weakening demand.”  

Data shown by AutoGrab notes that the 2025 build year shows the largest movement in days-to-sell, up 54 days to 151.3 days since February 14, reflecting buyer caution on higher-priced stock. 

The 2022 and 2021 cohorts show the smallest movement, consistent with buyers at the affordable end of the market acting more decisively. 

In its outlook, the AutoGrab researchers said that if listings fail to recover toward the 2800 to 3000 range through late March and April “upward pricing pressure movement is likely to follow”.

“Supply indicators are already tracking four weeks ahead of where price movements typically materialise,” it said. 

“At 91.9 per cent on March 29, 2025-built RVs are at levels that will attract remarketing attention. 

“Fleet operators and dealers should be monitoring appraisal benchmarks weekly rather than monthly in the current environment.” 

It said that early second-quarter trade-in activity and end-of-financial-year fleet resets historically introduce incremental supply. 

“However, given the pace of current demand absorption, a normal seasonal volume uplift may not be sufficient to meaningfully rebalance the market before June. 

“For buyers, the window to acquire used EVs at current price levels is narrowing.

“Sellers and dealers are seeing used EV values hold stronger than in the previous two years.”